Nation's Cities - July 18, 2011

NATION’S CITIES WEEKLY 5

NLC LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
Local Government Leaders: Creating a Sustainable Future

by John Luthy

This is the sixth in a series
of articles to discuss the topics
that will be presented at the
19th Annual Leadership Summit
scheduled for September 15-17,
in Minneapolis. The program
titled, “Inspire, Change, Lead:
The Art of Possibility,” includes
underlying themes of innovation,
change, collaboration and the
personal challenges of serving as a
leader in local government. This
is the first part of an article on
creating a sustainable future.

Public leaders need to explore and understand many con-
verging trends and be committed to planning for predictable
community impact. ...Much of history is cyclic: it repeats itself.
You have to understand history, be aware of critical trends
and have the foresight to implement ahead of the curve.

foresight to implement ahead
of the curve. Pay attention and
you will be much better pre-
pared.

Yes, You Are a Futurist!

A few years ago I was pre-
senting at the American
Public Works Association
International Congress and had
an opportunity to work with
David Zach, a talented and
entertaining futurist speaker.
My program later that after-
noon was on the future of pub-
lic works and addressed the
challenges leaders would face,
and it became clear that one
area where David and I dif-
fered relates to the concept of
predictability.
Even as a trained futurist,
David’s stated view was that
the future is not foreseeable
and even attempting predic-
tion is folly. Later, during my
program, I may have broken
protocol by disagreeing with
that perspective. While there
are certainly outlying “Black
Swans” and related variables,
the impacts of which are impos-
sible to predict, there are many
more that have measurable and
predictable outcomes.
Public leaders need to
explore and understand many
converging trends and be com-
mitted to planning for pre-
dictable community impact.
Remember, much of history is
cyclic: it repeats itself. You have
to understand history, be aware
of critical trends and have the
While much of the future
may be unpredictable, we can
predict many things given the
correct data. Why do I say this?
Let me relate a short story.

years. We read predictions of
the United States being divided
into four autonomous mega
regions, of China eclipsing the
U.S. as the global economic
power and of worldwide class,
economic or religious conflict.
Those things are hard to
predict, but there are many
capable people dedicated to
positive outcomes in climate,
economics, peace and global
collaboration. For every nega-
tive possible future, there is a
positive one. And change is in
the air. Tipping points have
been reached in several areas
and the pace of change will
accelerate. The outcomes could
be profound.
The second part of the arti-
cle will appear in next week’s
Nation’s Cities Weekly.
A New Era
There is a great deal of dis-
cussion about change. But
change is what occurs in the
normal course of economic,
social and biological evolution.
It occurs regardless of what we
do.
In every era there are big
changes and small changes.
Some are profound, but most
are not. We appear to be enter-
ing a new era. From all appear-
ances, it is a time of transition
and transformation. Predictions
range from the end of the world
in December 2012 (according
to the Mayan calendar) to the
death of industrialization and
devolution into a global agrar-
ian society within a hundred
Dr. John Luthy is a lead-
ing futurist specializing in city,
county, state, and federal long-
range thinking and planning.
His new book, “Planning the
Future – A Guide to Strategic
Thinking and Planning for
Elected Officials, Public
Administrators and Community
Leaders,” was released in October
2010. He is president of The
Futures Corporation and author
of PublicFutures, a blog (www.
publicfuturesblog.com) dedicated
to assist public leaders prepare for
a challenging future.
Details: The annual
Leadership Summit is NLC’s
premiere leadership develop-
ment program for local officials.
Designed as a leadership retreat,
the summit provides personal
leadership development that is
focused on community perspec-
tives. For more information,
contact the Leadership Training
Institute at (202) 626-3170 or
visit the Leadership Summit
website at www.nlc.org.
Regional, from page 4
of their health-insured population, rates
of homeownership and metropolitan
stability, as measured by recent popula-
tion change.
• Raleigh, N.C., with leading
technology firms, medical centers and
universities, ranks first in economic
diversity.
• Ames, Iowa, ranks first for
socio-demographic capacity due to its
exceptionally high level of educational
attainment (Iowa State University is
located here).

Details: The Building Resilient
Regions Research Network is a nation-
al network of experts on metropolitan
regions funded by the John D. and
Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
and administered by the University of
California, Berkeley. For more infor-
mation, see http://brr.berkeley.edu/rci/
brrhome.html.

A major research and public policy
center of the University at Buffalo, the
Regional Institute plays a vital role in
addressing key policy and governance issues
for regions, with focused analysis of the
Buffalo-Niagara region.